Morgan Stanley believes that artificial intelligence (AI) will kill 200,000 jobs in Europe by 2030. The figure is staggering because it only includes one group of people in a single industry in a single region. It also demonstrates how AI may be an extraordinary trigger for worldwide unemployment.
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Morgan Stanley forecasts that artificial intelligence will eliminate 200,000 banking jobs in the EU by 2030.
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Other forecasts are even worse, but experts also believe that AI will create new employment opportunities.
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The Financial Times reports that the Morgan Stanley forecast is only for banking jobs in the European Union. It reports, “Cuts are most likely to come from within banks’ ‘central services’ divisions, which include back- and middle-office roles, as well as risk management and compliance positions, according to the analysis of 35 lenders.” If this holds true for other regions of the world that are home to the same kind of businesses, the figure has to range nearer to 1 million.
The forecast is not entirely new. Goldman Sachs told its employees to expect job cuts next year. However, the magnitude of these cuts is nowhere near the new Morgan Stanley forecast.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said AI would take a large number of jobs, but not just at his company. He believes jobs in a much larger part of the economy will be lost while others are added. Additionally, people may enjoy a shorter work week, he says.
No forecast about AI job loss is as terrible as one given by Goldman Sachs. It expects 300 million jobs worldwide will be “lost or diminished” because of AI efficiency. On the other hand, it expects AI to create new employment opportunities.
The debate about AI-driven job losses will not be conclusive until substantial cuts begin.
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